Bot Betting Edge

Bot Betting Edge

The Blog

This blog will contain my reflections and progress within the field of modelling and predicting sports probabilities, especially for soccer matches inplay. Although placing bets on different matches I don't consider myself as a bettor, I see myself as an investor placing money where I have edge and finds value. Sports betting is fantastic!

New blog place!!

GeneralPosted by Tobias Bramhed Sun, August 21, 2016 20:49:09
From now on, this blog is located at:

www.machinebetting.com

Follow me there!

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Malmö FF, Allan Kuhn

GeneralPosted by Tobias Bramhed Wed, January 13, 2016 11:26:50
As you might know from previous posts, Malmö FF is the football team in my heart. Being without a coach for a while (since Åge Hareide left to coach the Danish national team) it is now confirmed that the new coach is Allan Kuhn.

Totally unknown for me, but comes with an interesting CV as coach and assistent coach for some of the bigger Danish teams as Ålborg, Randers and FC Midtjylland.

It will be a very interesting season, and I welcome Allan to Malmö!



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Champions League

GeneralPosted by Tobias Bramhed Thu, August 06, 2015 15:49:13
Yes !!

Congrats to my all time favorite soccer team, Malmö FF, for qualifying for the play-offs in Champions League. A fantastic home win, 3-0, beating Red Bull Salzburg for the second year in a row.

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U21 champs!

GeneralPosted by Tobias Bramhed Wed, July 01, 2015 10:23:40

Wow!

Sweden defeated Portugal in the U21 Euro Championship final yesterday, a fantastic match which ended 0-0 after 120 minutes of gameplay and two great saves by the swedish goalkeeper Carlgren took the Swedes to victory! Congrats!

Looks promising for the future Swedish national team, we finally have some good players taking over from Ibrahimovic, Ljungberg, Larsson.


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Beating the pro's

GeneralPosted by Tobias Bramhed Fri, June 26, 2015 15:46:20
Cassini, writer of the excellent blog Green all Over wrote a very interesting piece a few days ago regarding hobby traders vs the pro's in the betting industry. He meant that its impossible for the average hobby trader to get some kind of edge over the pro's on those markets where there is much action (for example inplay soccer). He means that the pro's have an advantage in information which in the long run will win over the hobby trader.

Well, I dont agree with Cassini... I think its very much possible, if you are smart and choose your battles.

I know that it would be impossible for me to compete with pro's in all markets and all kind of situations. My trick is that I have choosed to become a "real" specialist within a very narrow scenario in inplay soccer.

I dont model all situations in all soccer matches, and I dont try to model all kind of markets. I choose my battles!

I am sure that I now beat most of the pro's in my little well defined box, just because I spend all my available time to learn everything in that little box.

So my tip to you who struggle with your strategies and cant find an edge:

Choose a league, situation, team or whatever and be the best in that field, by doing so you will eventually find edge there. Good luck!

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Why?

GeneralPosted by Tobias Bramhed Thu, June 11, 2015 10:45:17
I am now entering my 8 (eight!) year as an amateur punter on Betfair. So where am I after all those years?

My lifetime Profit/Loss on betfair is as we speak -3.900 SEK, made from about 35.000 bets with a total turnover around 4.100.000 SEK (ROI -0.1%).

There have been LOT of work for no profit at all ... But I still I don't doubt a second that I can start to make descent profits from my models, I am getting closer and closer and I really think that this year will be a break point where I turn my lifetime PL into plus side and actually starts making some money.

Atleast my competence within betting has improved significantly during those years. When I started out in 2008 I tested simple ideas (like long shot bias) and spent hours every day to place bets.

In 2009 I started to automatise it by using screen scraping methods in combination with excel, I still didn't do real mathematical models - I just filtered the outputs and adjusted my betting criterion's from that.

In 2010 I took interest in the mathematical side of betting, started to build models and calculate my own odds.

In 2011 I developed my first bot, totally automatising the process of collecting odds and data as well as placing bets. I programmed my bot to connect to the Betfair API which finally gave me something more stable than excel (and imacros..).

Since then its been a battle of finding better models with a real edge, as well as developing the bot.

2014 - Went Inplay instead of Pregame, and from this point I think that my models actually have edge (although a small one). During the last year I also learned the importance of having good money management...

2015 - Aim to improve betting turnover and ROI, I will keep you up-to-date with my progress :)

My key driver for all those years is probably more the "treasure hunt" than the treasure itself, but sometimes its good with a motivator:



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Where am I?

GeneralPosted by Tobias Bramhed Thu, January 30, 2014 19:46:42
Hi readers out there,

its been a while since a posted on this blog - will try to shape up. Since the last post I've been busy doing:

1. closing down the pregame strategies - realy couldnt get them into positive ROI

2. developing my bot into inplay soccer matches - more post on this theme later


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Bad coding...

GeneralPosted by Tobias Bramhed Sun, January 27, 2013 20:46:40
A couple of days ago I made a few updates to my software robot. Unfortunately I am not the best coder so there was a "small" mistake incorporated in the code which later was installed and went online.

The mistake rendered the issue that instead of betting flat bets 45 SEK I was betting 45% of my total Betfair amount on EACH market!

This time I was lucky and a few hours later when I discovered the problem I had made a few bets, some of which I then could trade out off. Total result of the mistake was an additional 12000 SEK on my account. Thank you luck god! Ofcourse I could as well have lost everything on my account (in a probabilistic view I should have).

So, recoded some parts of the bot and added a few safety nets to avoid this happening in the future.

Learn from the mistakes, try get better and suddenly one day I might be able to produce a positive and stable +5% ROI. I still have a long way to go in model development and software development to achieve that.


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