Bot Betting Edge

Bot Betting Edge

The Blog

This blog will contain my reflections and progress within the field of modelling and predicting sports probabilities, especially for soccer matches inplay. Although placing bets on different matches I don't consider myself as a bettor, I see myself as an investor placing money where I have edge and finds value. Sports betting is fantastic!

Result 2016-03

Betting resultPosted by Tobias Bramhed Mon, April 11, 2016 09:49:16
And here are the results for March :


Oh no! March ended up with a loss of 1460 SEK ... So summing up the first quarter of 2016 we see:

1. total turn of 1 264 598 SEK, that's approximately 136 406 Euros.

2. 2 751 unike markets were bet on, out of 55 499 followed. That is a hitrate of 5 %.

3. ROI of 0.8 %, and normalised ROI at 1.5%.


The turnover is inline with my expectations, but the ROI of 0.8 % is too low (my target is 1.5%).

breaking it down on back type:


Its especially when backing away teams that the model struggles... So for the 2:nd quarter I have made som adjustments to that model.

I have also med a general modification to the betting rules, I now demand the market to be a little bit more effective than I did earlier. There seem to be some bad bets originating from (probably) slow score updating. I think this adjustment will partly handle that problem.

The difference between ROI and normalised ROI is something that I will need to do some more thinking about :) There are two issues when following the ROI:

1. How much of my requested amount is actually matched?

If I request 1000 SEK and only get matched for 100 SEK - That will skew up the evaluation of the model.

2. How much do I request?

Depending on market type I request either 2% or 3% of my portfolio. That means that a later loss (given that the model is long term profitable) induces a higher blow to the ROI than a loss in the start.

So evaluating model in terms of normalised ROI its doing fine....

Just trying to put some data together (I will follow up on this subject later on!):






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